Dollar advances, in line with stocks, after US data; euro falls

The dollar rose for a third session against most major currencies on Tuesday, in line with U.S. stocks, bolstered by the prospect of reopenings in some American states and countries around the world, as well as U.S. services data that was stronger than market expectations.

Some analysts said since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March, the dollar has developed a positive correlation with U.S. stocks. Typically, the dollar tends to rally when stocks are down and financial markets are under stress.

The dollar is still a safe haven and gains when there is chaos in the market. But when it moves in tandem with risk assets, analysts are no longer surprised.

“There has been a disconnect between equities and economics,” said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. “So even though there is a risk rally today, the dollar’s performance, in large part, is tied to relative equity performance.”

U.S. stocks gained on Tuesday, as did crude futures, which advanced 20%, with Brent up around 12% as production fell and countries around the globe, including Italy, Finland and several U.S. states, eased lockdown restrictions.

“This is the situation we’re in right now,” said Issa. “With very low yields, investment alternatives are few and far between and so what it does mean is that the U.S equity market, much like the dollar, is more defensively structured in terms of its sectoral compositions,” Issa said.

The greenback’s gains came at the expense of the euro, which weakened broadly after a German constitutional court ruled that the Bundesbank must stop buying government bonds if the European Central Bank cannot prove those purchases are needed.

The decision did not apply to the ECB’s latest pandemic-fighting program, a 750 billion-euro scheme to prop up the economy, but the ruling unsettled financial markets, which had been calmed by aggressive ECB asset purchases aimed at preventing the pandemic leading to an economic meltdown.

The dollar, meanwhile, edged higher after data showed a better-than-expected reading for the U.S. services sector in April. The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index fell to 41.8 last month, from 52.5 in March, but the April level was higher than the consensus forecast of 36.8.

In afternoon trading, the dollar index was up 0.2% at 99.714.

The euro, meanwhile, fell 0.5% to $1.0850 in the wake of the German court ruling.

The dollar gained 0.7% versus the Swiss franc, another safe-haven currency, to 0.9721 franc, but slipped 0.3% against the yen to 106.450 yen.

Commodity currencies rose with higher risk appetite, with the Australian dollar up 0.6% at 64.57 U.S. cents. It also rose after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its targets for the cash rate and three-year government bond yields unchanged at 0.25%.

Trading was light because of public holidays in Japan and China. The yuan rose 0.2% to 7.1170 per dollar in offshore trade, recovering from a six-week low of 7.1560 hit in the previous session but well below its range last month.

FOREX-Dollar surges on worries that US-China trade war will resume

The U.S. dollar surged against most major currencies on Monday amid fears that last year’s U.S.-China dispute will be re-ignited, this time over the novel coronavirus.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have pinned the blame for the pandemic on China, where the new coronavirus outbreak is believed to have originated.

The latest salvo came from Pompeo on Sunday, who said there was “a significant amount of evidence” that the virus emerged from a laboratory in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

“This morning’s session is being dominated by risk-averse trading as investors weigh the negative consequences to global growth from another escalation in U.S.-China tensions,” said Simon Harvey, currency analyst at broker Monex Europe.

“The headlines of further tariffs and supply-chain disruptions come at a time where global growth expectations are already fragile, causing currencies such as sterling and the euro to trade on the back foot this morning despite exit measures set to be announced or implemented in their respective economies,” Harvey said.

The euro was last down 0.4% at $1.0932. Sterling was also down by 0.4% to $1.2442.

The dollar was also rising against Scandinavian currencies, which are so vulnerable to global trade risks. The Swedish crown was last down 0.6% at 9.8995 versus the dollar and the Norwegian crown was falling by 0.8% at 10.3975.

However, the biggest move in the currency markets was the Chinese yuan, which fell to a six-week low of 7.1555 against the dollar in the offshore market. It was last flat at 7.1380, but if falls again, the next levels to watch would be the mid-March low of 7.1651 and early-September low of 7.1975.

Analysts were debating how the United States might attack China again – with more trade tariffs or even cancelling the payments on the U.S. Treasurys that China owns – but they all agreed the dollar/yuan cross would see higher volatility.

“A re-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions has the potential to bring an end to the relative stability in USD/CNY,” said Lee Hardman, a forex strategist at MUFG.

The moves extended a dour start for May, which began with Friday’s bleak U.S. data and the threat of a fresh trade-war between the world’s two biggest economies.

Dollar slips against euro, gains on yen on month-end rebalancing

The dollar fell against the euro and jumped against the Japanese yen on Thursday as investors focused on month-end rebalancing of their portfolios.

The euro bounced and the yen fell sharply just before forex rates were set for the month at the end of the London session.

“It looks flow-driven,” said Erik Nelson, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo in New York, especially as other markets including bank stocks and euro zone bonds didn’t see similar moves. “Nothing has even come close to the move we’ve seen in the euro.”

The euro jumped 0.77% to $1.0957, the highest since April 15. The dollar gained 0.53% against the yen to 107.27.

The cross-currency basis swap for swapping three-month yen LIBOR for dollar LIBOR also turned negative for the first time in a month, indicating strong demand for dollars against the Japanese currency for the end of the month.

The dollar had gained against the euro earlier on Thursday as stocks slipped and after the European Central Bank disappointed some investors who had expected that it would expand bond purchases to junk bonds as part of its quantitative easing program.

It was “a combination of weaker risk and short-term reaction to the ECB announcement that there would be no QE expansion,” said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York.

The dollar index against a basket of currencies rose to 99.73 after the ECB meeting, before falling back to 98.99, down 0.50% on the day.

The greenback has weakened from more than a three-year peak of 102.99 in late March as global central banks launched massive stimulus measures to protect economies from the coronavirus outbreak.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates near zero and promised to expand emergency programs as needed to help the battered U.S. economy.

Improving risk appetite, if it continues, could dent the dollar further. Investors are more optimistic that economies globally are closer to reopening.

“If we are seeing a bit of a rebound in risk, and I would say the last week or so has been quite encouraging on that front, then that would suggest that this would take some of the upward pressure off the dollar,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA in London.

Dollar hovers above 2-week low before Fed meeting

The dollar held shy of two-week lows against its rivals on Wednesday, with high-yielding currencies leading gainers as investors bet on central bank easing to remain even as partial lifting of coronavirus lockdowns grew.

Against a basket of its rivals, the greenback edged down 0.2% to 99.73 in late morning London trade, above a two-week low of 99.43 hit in the previous session.

Currency markets were largely in wait-and-watch mode with limited moves before the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, where policymakers are seen keeping their promise to do whatever it takes to support the world’s largest economy.

Before that, the U.S. quarterly GDP numbers will be released at 1230 GMT, with consensus forecasts for a contraction of around 4%. Analysts are already focusing on the extent of recovery in coming months with a Reuters poll expecting the U.s. economy to expand 3.8% in 2021.

The dollar has weakened more than 3.5% after scaling a more than three-year peak of 102.99 in late March as global central banks launched massive stimulus measures to protect economies from the novel coronavirus pandemic.

“Policy response from the Fed has been very aggressive,” said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG. He expects the Fed to continue to keep the money taps on to reduce the risk in financial markets.

The unprecedented response by central banks has calmed nerves in forex markets with the Deutsche Bank index of currency volatility sharply retreating from its highs in March.

“Investors are also encouraged by the plans of easing lockdown measures in France and Spain and other European countries and it does look like we will see a pick up in activity towards the end of the second quarter,” Hardman said.

The euro climbed 0.3% to $1.08545 before a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.

The currency was hardly hit by Fitch’s downgrade of Italy’s sovereign rating to one notch above junk as investors took comfort from some economies in the bloc re-opening.

U.S. stock futures meanwhile rose 0.7% while European bourses were mixed.

“The weakening of the dollar and the strengthening of the commodity-linked currencies suggest that risk appetite may have remained supported for another day,” said Charalambos Pissouros, a senior market analyst at JFD Group.

The Australian dollar led gains against the greenback with the currency up 0.4% at $0.65200.

Australian dollar near six-week peak as easing lockdowns spur risk

The Australian dollar tested six-week highs on Tuesday, as signs of progress in re-opening economies helped the risk-sensitive currency recoup most of the panic selling seen in March, and as the greenback nursed overnight losses.

The Aussie has rallied more than 17% from last month’s 17-year low and overnight rose through resistance around $0.6445. It drifted down to $0.6438 and was just below multi-week peaks against the euro, pound and yen. Other majors were steady.

“The Aussie is in beast mode at the moment,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone.

“Part of that is down to the fact that it is your best way of playing reflation…it’s kind of a proxy for equity markets,” he said. Shorts had mostly fled their positions and momentum funds had arrived to ride the wave, Weston said, as traders seemed to worry less about fundamentals and focus more on the valuation outlook.

The move comes amid a global push to re-start economies frozen by coronavirus lockdowns.

In Australia, which has avoided the high number of deaths seen in other countries, states are beginning to relax restrictions on movement. Sydney’s famous Bondi beach re-opened to surfers on Tuesday.

Italy, which has the world’s second-highest number of reported coronavirus deaths, will allow factories and building sites to reopen from May 4 as it prepares to end Europe’s longest lockdown.

The U.S. state of Georgia has begun letting residents dine at restaurants and watch movies at theaters as more states, from Minnesota to Mississippi, took steps to ease restrictions, even though health experts warned it may be too early.

Besides the Aussie, other majors were less exuberant. The New Zealand dollar was subdued, weighed by a particularly aggressive stance from its central bank.

The kiwi retraced overnight gains and fell to $0.5998 while the pound was steady around $1.2424, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned it was too dangerous to relax a strict lockdown in Britain.

The Japanese yen has been rangebound just above 107 yen per dollar for half of April, and held at 107.27 on Tuesday.

The slightly softer dollar has also failed to give much lift to the euro, as investors worry about the shape of a rescue package for hardest hit and heavily indebted Spain and Italy.

“Whereas the U.S., UK, Australia, China and Japan, if needs be, can go to the printing presses, in Europe you’re constrained,” said Colin Harte, head of strategy at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London.

“I think there’s a little bit of a risk premium that’s creeping in to the euro on concerns about where do we go from here.”

The single currency held at $1.0832.

US dollar falls as lockdown eases and traders turn less averse to risk

The U.S. dollar fell across the board on Monday as traders turned more positive and less averse to risk amid an easing in coronavirus lockdown restrictions in several countries.

The U.S. dollar was weaker against the Japanese yen and the euro as investors turned slightly more positive on Italy and saw the Bank of Japan continuing to support an economy battered by the virus.

Credit rating agency S&P reaffirmed on Friday Italy’s BBB rating, in spite of what many had expected – a downgrade – supporting the common currency as this limits the escalation of an economic and political crisis on the continent.

The BoJ expanded its stimulus to help companies hit by the coronavirus crisis, pledging to buy unlimited amount of bonds to keep borrowing costs low as the government tries to spend its way out of the deepening economic pain.

The dollar shed 0.3% of its value versus the Japanese yen to trade at 107.23 yen, having fallen earlier to a two-week low of 106.93.

The euro was up 0.2% at $1.0842.

Traders now shift their focus to a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting ending Wednesday and a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday as major central banks once again take the stage as the global economy battles against a deep depression.

The Fed has already announced a raft of measures and is expected to stay on hold this week, which is unlikely to trouble the dollar, analysts say.

The stakes are higher for the euro, because the ECB is likely to extend its debt purchases to include junk bonds, and some investors are worried this decision could widen rifts between members of the European Union.

On Sunday, the Australian states of Queensland and Western Australia said they would slightly ease social distancing rules this week as the number of people infected decreased on the continent, pushing the Australian dollar to a seven-week high of 0.6469 against the U.S. dollar.

Encouraged by a fall in infection rates, Germany also has allowed on Sunday small retail stores to reopen, provided they adhere to strict distancing and hygiene rules. Now large corporations are following suit.

Italy will also ease lockdown measures from May 4.

These measures, alongside with more positive COVID-19 data, has turned investors more risky, forcing them to abandon the safety net of greenback, analysts said. A Reuters index which tracks the dollar against other major currencies fell below 100 for the first time since Wednesday.

“The U.S. dollar has started the week on the back foot… It reflects more risk on trading conditions at the start of this week,” said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG.

“Most notably there was a sharp drop yesterday in the reported number of COVID-19 fatalities in a number of countries including France, Italy, Spain, and the UK which provides further encouragement that lockdown measures are proving effective,” Hardman said.

Dollar snaps four days of gains, but outlook bright

Four days of U.S. dollar gains ended on Friday, although broader concerns about the euro’s outlook kept dollar bears at bay.

The dollar is still set for its biggest weekly rise since early April, after a European Union meeting on Thursday to build a trillion-euro emergency fund disappointed investors.

Despite an agreement by EU leaders to fund a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, French President Emmanuel Macron said differences continued among EU governments over whether the fund should be transferring grant money, or simply making loans. “They just delivered on the basics and fell short of surprising markets positively and that is weighing on the euro,” said Ilan Solot, a currency markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London referring to the EU meeting.

The euro initially weakened on Friday, falling 0.4% against the U.S. dollar to a one-month low at $1.07275 and to a three-year low versus the yen at 115.55 yen. It subsequently erased losses and edged into positive territory in late trading though the outlook remained cautious.

The outcome of the EU meeting reflected the disagreement about how to resolve the crisis in Europe and prevent an escalation in peripheral bond yields, said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX strategy at Commerzbank.

With Italy and Spain hit far harder than Germany by the coronavirus pandemic, old disputes have surfaced across the EU, which drop in output of as much as 15%, according to the European Central Bank.

The dollar’s rally this week was aided by a historic collapse in oil prices, which pushed U.S. crude futures into negative territory for the first time ever. As oil prices stabilised, the dollar’s safe-haven appeal receded.

Preliminary goods-orders data in the United States and a German business sentiment survey due later on Friday are unlikely to improve investors’ mood, with any global recovery expected to be slow and patchy.

The Aussie and kiwi each shed about 0.2%, holding the kiwi below 60 cents at $0.5996 and the Aussie at $0.6359, beneath resistance around 64 cents per dollar.

Dollar slips against commodity currencies as Brent surges

The dollar slipped against the currencies of oil-producing states on Thursday, giving up earlier gains as a bounce in crude prices gave succour to markets shaken by the massive coronavirus-induced drop in demand.

As Brent crude surged on signs producers were cutting production to address collapsing demand for fuel, the greenback fell 1% against the Russian rouble to 75.19.

It also dropped 0.5% against the Norwegian crown to 10.7061, pulling back from a one-month high reached a day earlier. Against the Mexican peso it slipped 0.6% to 24.4990, retreating from a two-week high hit earlier.

The gains for oil came as major economies have been brought to a virtual standstill, with severe restrictions on businesses and travel aimed at limiting the spread of the coronavirus hitting commodity currencies.

In volatile trading, Brent crude soared as much as 15%, bouncing back from its lowest level since June 1999. It was last up 6.6% at $21.72 a barrel.

“The price of crude oil has staged a relief rally after coming under intense selling pressures,” said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG. “It has resulted in the US dollar weakening most notably against oil-related currencies.”

The euro slipped against the dollar after French business activity hit a record low, with the single currency losing 0.3% to fall below $1.08 for the first time in 2-1/2 weeks. It was last at 1.0785.

Investors also awaited euro zone PMI data, due at 0800 GMT.

The French data rattled the euro ahead of a meeting of European Union officials on the bloc’s response to the economic turmoil caused by the global coronavirus pandemic.

Markets are wary given uncertainty over how far EU governments will cooperate in financing the recovery from what is sure to be a deep recession.

Ahead of the outcome of the meeting, the euro was down 0.2% against the pound at 87.60 pence.

The European Central Bank has agreed to accept junk bonds as collateral to allow banks to finance themselves at the ECB, which should be a positive factor for the euro, but investors are waiting for details on the fiscal response.

The dollar was flat against a basket of currencies, lasting trading at 100.540.

Dollar surges across board, oil-linked currencies fall

The U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday against most major currencies as investors sought a safe haven after a plunge in oil prices a day earlier.

U.S. crude oil futures plunged into negative territory for the first time on Monday, dragged by a supply glut and sagging demand due to the novel coronavirus pandemic though they managed to scrape back into positive territory early Tuesday.

Oil-linked currencies like the Norwegian crown and the Canadian dollar were the worst performing currencies on Tuesday, along with the Swedish crown, a currency very sensitive to global economic stability.

The Norwegian crown was down 0.7% at 10.51 against the dollar and the Canadian dollar fell 0.4% to 1.4211 against the greenback, a two-week low.

The Swedish crown was down 0.5% at 10.07.

The euro was last down 0.3% at $1.0833.

“The euro is suffering as markets contemplate the increased borrowing that will be necessary to fund the recovery” from COVID-19, said Marshall Gittler, analyst at broker BDSwiss. European countries have been issuing debt to support their economies which have been frozen by the lockdowns.

Against the ultimate safe-haven currency – the Japanese yen – the dollar was last trading down 0.2% at 107.40.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery was trading last -$2.51 per barrel, off a low of minus $40 hit in New York trading.

The May contract expires on Tuesday. The more actively traded June contract was down at $20.27 a barrel.

“Oil is off its lows, but a lot of companies are going to get hit and companies could start to fail,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.

“If share prices have a pullback, the dollar could see some gains as a safe haven. The only thing that’s capping the dollar is that the Federal Reserve has done more quantitative easing than anyone else.”

Factory closures and travel curbs enforced to slow the pace of new infections have triggered a collapse in oil prices. This is drawing money from commodity currencies and other risk assets to the safety of dollar-denominated assets.

At 0900 GMT, analysts will be watching for the German ZEW economic sentiment survey. Economists polled by Reuters expect the economic sentiment and current conditions in

Dollar firm as caution on economic re-start returns

The dollar found support on Monday and a rally in riskier currencies lost steam, as investors braced for more dire news on the fallout from the coronavirus and governments across the globe moved only cautiously toward an economic re-start.

Major currencies were mostly rangebound, though the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars and the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar led losses with falls of around 0.3%.

Oil, U.S. stock futures and Asian equities were also softer as caution took hold after two weeks of looking on the bright side.

“Hurdles facing optimists are very substantial,” said Sean Callow, Westpac FX analyst in Sydney.

“We’re three weeks into a quarter that globally looks as though it’s going to be the worst in many decade. For us, while the momentum may be with risk appetite for a little bit longer, we think its very fragile and has to pull back very soon.”

The Australian dollar sat a cent lower than a one-month high hit last week at $0.6344. The New Zealand dollar was also on the back foot, but held at $0.6013 after stronger-than-expected first-quarter inflation.

Investors’ preference for the dollar as a safe harbor also pushed euro, pound and yen a little lower. The euro was about 0.2% softer at $1.0858 and the pound retreated to $1.2477. The dollar rose 0.2% to 107.77 Japanese yen.

The week ahead brings U.S. monthly employment figures, eurozone survey indicators and quarterly growth in world-trade bellwether South Korea. None are likely to be easy reading.

The week is also crucial to the COVID-19 recovery as governments around the world make tentative steps toward easing lockdowns.

In the United States, where the death toll rose to more than 40,000 on Sunday, state governors have sparred with President Donald Trump over virus testing capacity and how quickly their economies can re-open.

Investors are also closely watching an announcement due in New Zealand at 0400 GMT as to whether its tough but curve-squashing restrictions are to be loosened or extended.

Britain is not considering lifting its lockdown, a senior minister said on Sunday, while leaders in Ireland and Canada have flagged long-lasting social distancing rules.

“We are coming into the eye of the storm,” said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone in Melbourne.

“And as the market starts to focus less on virus headlines, or at least will be less sensitive to better news, we will focus more on the lasting effects on the economy and solvency.”

China, which has suffered its first quarterly growth contraction since quarterly records began, is expected to cut its benchmark lending rate later on Monday.

The yuan was steady at 7.0711 per dollar in offshore trade.