FX Rate News

The dollar rose sharply on Friday, boosted by a strong U.S. jobs report toward its biggest weekly gain in seven weeks.

The report showed jobs grew more than expected in July, pushing bond yields higher on the view that the Federal Reserve may act more quickly to tighten U.S. monetary policy.

The dollar index against major currencies was up nearly 0.6% at 92.776 at 3:06 p.m. ET.

Against the safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, the dollar had its biggest daily gains since June, reflecting a risk-on tone as well as the appeal of higher U.S. interest rates.

The report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls showed jobs increased by 943,000 in July compared with the 870,000 forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

The news rekindled dollar momentum, grounded in the middle of the week by statements from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida suggesting that conditions for hiking interest rates might be met as soon as late 2022.

Fed officials have said that improving employment is critical to when they begin to pull back further on extra support they provided for the economy during the pandemic.

Clarida’s remarks lifted Treasury yields after five weeks of declines, while “real” yields, excluding inflation, are set to snap a six-week streak of declines.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note touched 1.3%, up from 1.18% on Monday.

The greenback rose 0.9% against the Swiss franc and 0.4% on the Japanese yen, which traded at 110.215 to the dollar.

The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1759, pressured early in the session by weaker than expected German industrial orders data.

The British pound fell nearly 0.4% to $1.3878.

In contrast to the U.S. payroll report, in Canada a domestic employment report showed far fewer jobs added in July than expected. The greenback rose 0.4% to 1.2555 Canadian dollars.

Analysts have cautioned it will take more evidence than one jobs report to push U.S. yields significantly higher again. Friday’s yield remained nearly one-half a percentage point lower than at the end of March.

Reactions to monthly jobs reports have changed often this year in days following release of the data, strategists at Wells Fargo Securities found when they looked at the 10-year Treasury yield.

Markets will next be watching for comments from Fed policymakers at the symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming late this month.

Big moves across exchange rates are unlikely until Fed officials signal readiness to lead other central banks in pulling back economic support, said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at fxstreet.com.

“The Fed is pumping far more money into the U.S. economy and, by diffusion, to the rest of the world than anybody else,” Trevisani said.

When Fed policy makers are confident in U.S. employment gains to raise interest rates, the global economy could be strong enough to bolster riskier currencies instead of the dollar.

A recent Reuters poll of strategists showed most predicting a dollar fall over the next year.

The dollar was pinned near recent lows against other currencies on Tuesday, as traders awaited U.S. jobs data for a guide to the rates outlook, while labor market strength lifted the kiwi in anticipation of a New Zealand rate hike within weeks.

New Zealand’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 4% last quarter, its lowest since December 2019, and the New Zealand dollar jumped 0.5% to a one-month high of $0.7056.

“We’ve flown past full employment, and the economy is becoming quite overheated,” said analysts at ANZ, who expect 25 basis point hikes in August, October, November, February and May to carry kiwi rates from 0.25% currently to 1.5% by mid-2022.

Elsewhere currencies were broadly steady as markets looked ahead to partial U.S. labor data due later on Wednesday and non-farm payroll figures due on Friday.

The dollar was a touch lower at $1.1870 per euro and the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major rivals, held at 92.024.

The dollar index has now slipped more than 1% from a 15-weekpeak it struck a fortnight ago as U.S. yields and U.S. rate hike expectations have receded with investors questioning the strength and speed of the economic recovery.

“The big dollar picture is that there is a pullback in Fed hike expectations and we’ve seen the U.S. dollar head south,” said National Australia Bank senior strategist Rodrigo Catril, adding the focus was now on the rates implications of jobs data.

“We’ve all seen progress in the labor market, but the question is how much is good enough,” he said.

Economists polled by Reuters expect ADP payrolls data, due around 1215 GMT, to show 695,000 jobs were added last month -roughly steady on a month earlier — and for Friday’s non-farm payrolls to show 880,000 jobs added in July.

Catril said it could take several consecutive months of that kind of growth, or even stronger, to bring down unemployment sufficiently for central bankers to take note.

Safe haven currencies, meanwhile, have benefited from the dollar’s softness, particularly as nerves about the spread of the delta coronavirus variant keep a degree of caution in currency markets.

After falling since the start of the year, the Japanese yen has gained about 2.5% against the dollar in a month and held at 108.98 yen per dollar on Wednesday, after touching its highest since late May overnight at 108.875.

The fellow safe-haven Swiss franc has also been on the front foot. It hit a seven-week high of 0.90235 per dollar overnight.

On the other side of the coin, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar has been unable to break resistance around $0.7415, even after the central bank gave investors a hawkish surprise by sticking with tapering plans on Tuesday.

The Aussie last bought $0.7406.

Sterling has found momentum from an encouraging end to Covid-19 restrictions in highly-vaccinated England, which has so far seemed not to cause a spike in virus deaths.

Attention there now turns to a Bank of England meeting on Thursday, with focus on policymakers economic projections and on what they say that means for rates. Swaps markets are beginning to price a hike liftoff around June 2022.

“If the BoE communicates a more cautious outlook, then we could see hike bets by June 2022 pushed back – putting some pressure on sterling,” said Luke Suddards, a research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone.

The dollar was on the back foot against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Tuesday after soft U.S. manufacturing data and rising concerns about the coronavirus delta variant prompted traders to wind back bets on a strong economic recovery.

The dollar traded at 109.34 yen, near its July 19 low of 109.07, which was its lowest level since late May. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar traded at 0.9054 franc, having hit a 1-1/2-month low of 0.9038 in the previous session.

The euro was subdued at $1.1873, having lost a bit of momentum after hitting a one-month high of $1.1909 on Friday while sterling slipped to $1.3889 from Friday’s one-month high of $1.39835.

“The market is moderately risk-off with bond yields falling off a bit since European trade yesterday. There is some caution as the Delta variant is spreading in many places, even in China,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.

The U.S. yield dropped on Monday shortly after an Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report showed July U.S. manufacturing growth slowed for the second straight month.

“From a historic perspective a 59.5 manufacturing ISM reading is still a very robust activity reading. Nevertheless reaction to the data release by the U.S. Treasuries market suggests the market is concerned over ‘peak growth’ and the potential for more slowdown ahead,” wrote Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Clouding the outlook further is the spread of delta variant.

In the United States, Covid hospitalizations in Louisiana and Florida have surged to their highest points of the pandemic, though the country’s top health expert, Anthony Fauci, ruled out another lockdown in the country.

That outweighed any excitement over a $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill that could be ready for a final vote as early as this week.

The delta variant, which U.S. authorities on Monday described as contagious as chickenpox and far more contagious than the common cold or flu, is raging in many Asian countries once thought as successful in containing the disease.

Japan expanded state of emergency curbs to more regions on Monday as cases hit record in Tokyo while in China the delta variant spreads from the coast to inland cities, posing new risks for the world’s second-biggest economy.

Australia’s Queensland state on Monday extended a Covid-19 lockdown in Brisbane, while soldiers began patrolling Sydney to enforce stay-at-home rules.

The Australian dollar was little moved at $0.7367 as investors looked to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting at which it is expected to reverse a decision to trim its bond buying program.

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% to $0.6989 after the country’s central bank said on Tuesday it would soon begin consulting on ways to tighten mortgage lending standards, as it looks to control an inflated housing market and protect home buyers.

The dollar hovered around a two-week low on Thursday, weighed down by the latest insistence from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell that rate increases aren’t on the radar, while sterling has been riding higher with re-opening optimism.

Overnight, the Fed first sounded confident about the economy in its statement. Then Powell was more circumspect and said in his news conference that rate increases were “a ways away” and that the job market still had “some ground to cover”.

The greenback initially rose following the statement, before retreating to a two-week low of $1.1849 per euro after Powell’s remarks.

It seems to be taking a breather from a month-long steady rise, and the euro is now above its 20-day moving average.

Improved market mood after Bloomberg reported China’s securities regulator held a phone call with banks to soothe fears about the recent selloff also put some support behind riskier currencies overnight, analysts said.

“The reaction was to the Powell presser, which was seen as dovish,” said National Australia Bank’s head of FX strategy Ray Attrill. “And improving risk sentiment should be associated with a weaker dollar,” he added, noting the rebound in U.S.-listed China tech names and recent gains in re-opening exposed firms.

The U.S. dollar index fell for a third straight session on Wednesday and hit a two-week low of 92.233, then held near that level at 92.257 early in the Asia session.

The Chinese yuan has recovered most of its Tuesday plunge, though it traded slightly on the back foot ahead of the open of onshore markets on Thursday, at 6.4902 per dollar.

The Australian dollar made a modest overnight rise, though it has been held back by a lengthening lockdown of Sydney which is set to drag on the national economy.

The Aussie last sat at $0.7372 while the kiwi bounced from its overnight lows to hover around $0.6959.

The Japanese yen has found support this week from nerves about the delta coronavirus variant and jitters in China’s equity market, and it held at 109.73 per dollar.

Another big mover this week has been sterling, as traders have been encouraged by early signs that England’s end to most Covid restrictions last week has not been a disaster.

Sterling is up nearly 2.5% from a low around $1.3572 last week to trade at $1.3906 on Thursday, and it touched an almost four-month high of 84.97 pence per euro overnight.

It has gained 3% from last week’s four-month low on the yen and is on a bit of a tear against the Aussie , rising 1.2% over the week so far and more than 6% year-to-date.

British infection numbers ticked higher on Wednesday, but the rolling averages are heading lower — though experts, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have cautioned that it is too early to draw conclusions.

“At the moment, the UK’s (Covid) position is pretty good and I do think that’s had an impact,” said NAB’s Attrill.

Ahead on Thursday traders await German labor and inflation data, European sentiment surveys and second-quarter U.S. GDP — where forecasts vary wildly but the consensus is for 8.5% annualized growth.

The U.S. dollar hovered near its strongest level since early April against the euro on Monday, as financial markets looked ahead to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week for clues on the timing of stimulus tapering.

The greenback was also close to a 12-day high on the safe-haven yen as record-high U.S. equity markets buoyed risk sentiment.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, stood at 92.920 at the start of the week, off from last week’s 3-1/2-month high of 93.194. It was still up about 3.8% from a recent low on May 25 as an improving U.S. economy bolstered the outlook for the Federal Reserve to start paring asset purchases as early as this year.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia projects the dollar can continue to strengthen this week on the possibility of the Fed moving a step closer to tapering at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

“We expect the FOMC to drop ‘substantial’ from ‘substantial further progress’” in its guidance on the necessary conditions for the labor market before removing monetary support, CBA strategist Joseph Capurso wrote in a client note.

“Removing ‘substantial’ will signal the FOMC believes it will soon be appropriate to taper asset purchases,” setting up a possible announcement of a taper in September, he said.

The risk to such an outlook is the rise in Covid-19 cases in the United States, coming after the Fed at its last meeting on June 16 dropped a reference to the coronavirus as a drag on the economy.

The dollar index eked out a 0.2% gain last week, benefiting from a safe-haven bid on fears a surge in infections of the fast-spreading delta variant could derail the global recovery, but paring those gains as strong U.S. earnings lifted stocks.

The dollar last traded little changed from Friday at $1.17655 per euro, near the high from last week of $1.1752, a level not seen since April 5.

It bought 110.56 yen approaching the peak of 110.58 from Friday, which was the highest since July 14.

Elsewhere, the Australia dollar slipped 0.1% to $0.7356, after dropping to an almost eight-month low of $0.72895 last week as half the country’s population languished under Covid-19 lockdown.

The British pound changed hands at $1.3745, little changed from last week, when it bounced as high as $1.3787 from an almost six-month low of $1.35725 touched just two days earlier.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin extended its gains from near $29,000 last week to push back over $36,000 on Monday for the first time since June. It last traded about 1.6% higher at $35,959.48.

Smaller rival ether was last up 2.6% at $2,250.58, recovering from as low as $1,717.17 last week.

The dollar was set to end the week close to where it started following a roller-coaster week in which currencies were tossed around by shifting risk appetite, with the market’s focus now shifting to next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

The dollar index is on track to advance 0.1% for the week, having barely budged overnight to stand at 92.782 in Asia on Friday.

That was, however, off the 3-1/2-month high of 93.194 hit on Wednesday as strong Wall Street earnings helped investors regain some of the confidence lost to earlier worries the delta variant of the coronavirus could derail the global recovery.

The safe-harbor yen weakened less than 0.1% during the week to trade at 110.135.

Meanwhile, the euro was 0.2% lower over the period at $1.1779 after the European Central Bank pledged to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer, as widely expected.

The uptrend in the dollar index is “showing tentative signs” of stalling around 93.0, “but its overall resilience regardless of the shifting risk mood and the ECB’s shift to a more structurally dovish policy stance suggest retracements will likely be limited to the 91.5-92.0 zone,” Westpac strategists wrote in a client note.

“The U.S. is better positioned than others to withstand the spread of the delta variant thanks to its earlier strong vaccination drive.”

The British pound recovered from losses as steep as 1.3% for the week to trade about 0.1% higher at $1.37755, buoyed by the recovery in risk sentiment even with Covid-19 cases broadly on the rise.

However, Australia’s dollar — often viewed as a proxy for risk appetite — was still headed for a 0.2% drop, which would be a fourth straight weekly decline.

With half the Australian population languishing under lockdown, economists speculate the country’s central bank could increase stimulus rather than decreasing it at its next policy meeting.

“The balance of risks point to more weakness in AUD in the near term,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joseph Capurso wrote in a client note.

The U.S. dollar climbed to a three-month peak on Tuesday in a flight-to-safety bid, as investors remained anxious about a fast-spreading coronavirus variant that could throttle global growth.

Commodity currencies tied to risk appetite such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars struggled, with investors opting for safety or staying on the sidelines in the midst of renewed fears about the highly contagious Delta variant, now the dominant coronavirus strain worldwide.

The United States, for instance, has seen a surge in infections, especially in areas where vaccinations have lagged.

The gains in the dollar come at a time when yield differentials have moved against it. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dipped to a five-month low below 1.20% on Monday.

“Many believe the very best of the recovery has already passed us and what is even worse, the medical concern that seemed to be fading away, seems to be returning with a vengeance,” said Juan Perez, FX strategist and trader at Tempus Inc in Washington.

“I believe the safe-haven strengthening is merited, considering that global progress has been anemic to what it appeared like in Q1 so now all valuations and high expectations for growth are being rightly questioned,” he added.

In mid-morning trading, the dollar index, a measure of its value against six major currencies, rose 0.2% to 93.086, after hitting a three-month high of 93.161 earlier in the session.

Data showing that U.S. housing starts rose 6.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.643 million units last month had little reaction from the FX market.

The euro weakened 0.3% to $1.1765, after dipping to $1.1755, the lowest since early April ahead of a European Central Bank policy decision on Thursday.

The British pound was also among the biggest losers, with the currency declining 0.5% to $1.3607 as Boris Johnson’s “freedom day” – ending more than a year of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in England – was marred by surging infections.

The Australian dollar dropped to its lowest since late November and was last down 0.2% at US$0.7322.

The Aussie’s losses were broad-based as minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting this month were seen by some economists as a sign that the central bank may reverse a decision to taper stimulus.

“The price action continues to send an ominous warning signal over the global growth outlook and indicates that market participants are becoming fearful over a more notable slowdown ahead,” MUFG strategists said in a daily note.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin sank as low as $29,296.39, a level not seen since June 22. It was last down 4% at $29,615. Rival ether fell 3.5% to $1,756.39.

The safe-haven U.S. dollar, yen, and Swiss franc rose on Monday as investors grew nervous about a raging coronavirus variant that could threaten the outlook for a global economic recovery.

The three currencies firmed as benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to a more than five-month low of 1.176%, with risk aversion spreading across financial markets.

The greenback climbed to a more than three-month peak against a basket of major currencies, but has come off its highs as the yen and Swiss franc gained with the worsening in risk sentiment.

The U.S. dollar though remained sharply higher against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars.

The yen, meanwhile, climbed to its highest in 1-1/2 months versus the dollar.

The Delta variant of Covid-19 is now the dominant strain worldwide, accompanied by a surge of deaths around the United States almost entirely among unvaccinated people, U.S. officials said on Friday.

“The wall of worry is being built,” said Christopher Vecchio, senior analyst at DailyFX.com, the research unit of forex broker IG. “Lower equities, lower yields, strength in the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar all amount to a significant risk-off impulse in markets.”

In afternoon trading, the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against six major currencies, rose to its highest since April 5. It was last up 0.2% on the day at 92.868.

As a result of global uncertainty related to the coronavirus variant, U.S. interest rates markets also reduced expectations on U.S. Federal Reserve tightening in 2022 and 2023.

“Rates markets don’t seem to think any Fed action is imminent, particularly as Delta variant concerns surge,” said Vecchio.

Fed funds futures, which track short-term rate expectations, showed the chances of a quarter-point hike by the Fed in December 2022 dropped to 58% on Monday from 90% on July 13, when the consumer price index was released. The likelihood that the Fed raises rates in January 2023 fell to 70% from 100% last Tuesday.

The dollar was also firmly higher against commodity currencies. It rose more than 1.1% against the Canadian dollar to C$1.2763. The Aussie dollar dropped 1% versus the greenback to US$0.7325, while the New Zealand dollar also dropped 1.1% to US$0.6923.

The yen surged against the dollar on Monday, rising to its highest since late May. The greenback was last down 0.6% at 109.44 yen.

The Swiss franc gained as well, dragging the dollar down 0.2% to 0.9180 franc.

The pound was down 0.9% at $1.3657 after UK Health Minister Sajid Javid announced over the weekend that he had tested positive for Covid-19 and was in self-isolation. That forced Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Finance Minister Rishi Sunak into quarantine, pushing sterling down to a three-month trough against the dollar earlier in the session. [GBP/]

The euro was down 0.1% at $1.1794, after dropping to a three-month low of $1.1764, ahead of this week’s European Central Bank meeting.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was testing key support of $30,000 and was last down 3.6% at $30,618.

The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks prepared for Congress that the economy was “still a ways off” from levels the central bank wanted to see before tapering its monetary support.

His comments came a day after data showed U.S. inflation hit its highest in more than 13 years last month, which lifted the greenback to just shy of its three-month high and sharpened the focus on when central banks around the world will begin withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus.

That focus intensified on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada said it would cut its weekly bond purchases to C$2 billion ($1.6 billion) from C$3 billion, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said it was ending bond purchases, raising expectations it could increase rates as soon as August.

Powell said in his prepared comments ahead of his two-day testimony starting later in the day that the Fed is firm in its belief that current price increases are tied to the reopening of the economy and are transitory.

The Fed will continue to deliver support “until recovery is complete,” he said.

The dollar index declined after Powell’s comments, slipping 0.4% to 92.428. It had earlier risen as high as 92.832 – just below the 92.844 level reached last week for the first time since April 5.

Against the euro, it slipped 0.41% to $1.18245, having earlier touched its highest since April 5 off of Tuesday’s inflation reading.

“After the CPI data the dollar gained pretty quickly, considering that every part of that print was higher than expected, and I think traders started to price in the fact that maybe the Fed can’t hide behind that word transitory forever,” said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Tempus Inc.

“The dip for the euro back below 1.18 yesterday was probably a little bit overdone and so this recovery today, I think, would have happened even without Powell’s comments.”

The dollar rose almost 3% last month after the Fed’s hawkish pivot forced markets to re-assess when tapering and rate rises might start. It firmed 0.6% on Tuesday after the inflation data.

U.S. producer price inflation also rose more than expected, data on Wednesday showed.

The kiwi meanwhile soared against the greenback after New Zealand’s central bank announced it would cut short a NZ$100 billion ($70 billion) bond-buying program. It added to the gains after Powell’s comments, standing 1.19% higher.

Analysts have brought forward calls for a rate rise to as early as August, which would put New Zealand at the forefront of countries to raise interest rates.

The divergence in monetary policy outlooks pushed the Australian dollar 0.79% lower against its New Zealand counterpart to NZ$1.063 , the lowest since early June.

The Canadian dollar cut earlier gains against the greenback after the Bank of Canada in a statement said it would keep interest rates unchanged until economic slack is absorbed, which is expected to happen in the second half of 2022.

“Overall, while the perception is that the Bank is quite hawkish, especially compared with the Fed, we ultimately expect very little daylight between the two banks when it comes to rate hike timing,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

The loonie was down 0.12% at 1.2502