EUR/USD remains stable on Tuesday in the North American session, while the Dollar shows signs of weakness amid concerns regarding a potential government shutdown that may impede the release of essential jobs data for Federal Reserve officials. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1735, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05%.
The dollar faces pressure as the Senate is unable to secure the necessary votes to prevent the impending government shutdown on October 1. US job openings remain stable, as a confidence survey reveals increasing household pessimism regarding the labor market and business prospects. Federal Reserve officials are divided regarding the direction of monetary policy, weighing the potential negative impacts on employment against ongoing inflationary challenges.
> The pair remains above 1.1730, even in light of mixed US data and cautious statements from the Fed : The financial markets narrative continues to center on the US government’s ability to avert a shutdown set to commence on October 1. Recently, a US Democratic bill aimed at preventing a shutdown did not receive enough votes to pass in the Senate as the voting process continues. From a data perspective, job openings in the US have increased, yet they underscore the “no hiring, no firing” environment emphasized by Fed officials. Simultaneously, the latest Consumer Confidence poll from the Conference Board indicated that households have adopted a pessimistic outlook regarding business and labor market conditions. Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials are making headlines. Tariffs are obstructing business decisions related to pricing strategies and personnel hiring. Boston Federal Reserve Susan Collins indicated that additional cuts could be suitable; however, officials must remain cautious regarding inflation. The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, stated, “I see the risks to employment as tilted to the downside and risks to inflation to the upside.” In Germany, the Retail Sales data for August showed improvement, yet it fell short of investor expectations on a monthly basis. Year-over-year, it indicated a slowdown in consumer spending.
Latest FX Rate Trends : EUR/USD stabilizes as US economic data presents a mixed picture
- Job openings in the US indicate a deceleration in the labor market; however, vacancies increased from 7.21 million to 7.23 million in August. Analyzing the data reveals that the hiring rate has decreased to 3.2%, marking the lowest point since June 2024, while layoffs have continued to stay at a minimal level.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence in September fell short of expectations, registering at 94.2, down from 97.6 in August and below the estimated 96.0. “Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” stated Stephanie Guichard.
- On Monday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that a shutdown would postpone the release of employment data.
- Fed funds rate futures indicate a 95% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut in October, while there is only a 5% chance of maintaining the current rates.