EUR/USD shows a robust increase of more than 0.51% on Tuesday, driven by a declining US Dollar, as data strengthened traders’ expectations that the Federal Reserve could lower rates at the upcoming December meeting. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1579, approaching the 1.1600 level.
EUR/USD moves upward as stable PPI and disappointing Retail Sales enhance the outlook for a Fed rate cut in December. The decline in US Consumer Confidence is notable, reflecting a growing pessimism regarding employment, income levels, and the overall financial outlook amidst the ongoing shutdown. German GDP aligns with forecasts, indicating a stagnant Q3 while providing minimal opposition to the Euro’s upward movement.
> Euro experiences a significant increase due to weakness US inflation and confidence data strengthen expectations for a December Fed cut : The shared currency continued to strengthen as US economic data indicated a decline in inflation, a reduction in consumer spending, and growing pessimism regarding the job market, income levels, and overall financial conditions. Reports says that the Producer Price Index stabilized in September. Retail Sales experienced a decline but continued to stay in positive territory in September, according to the Census Bureau. Subsequently, the November Conference Board Consumer Confidence index indicated a shift towards pessimism among households, experiencing its most significant decline since April, largely driven by the US government shutdown. In Germany, the Gross Domestic Product figures matched both estimates and the previous month’s data, suggesting that the economy experienced stagnation in the third quarter of 2025.
Latest FX Rate Trends : EUR/USD shows an upward trend as US inflation decreases
- The US Dollar Index, which monitors the dollar’s performance against six currencies, has decreased by 0.37%, currently standing at 99.81, just below the 100.00 threshold.
- The US Producer Price Index held firm at 2.7% YoY in September, aligning with expectations and the previous month’s figure, indicating a stabilization in inflationary pressures. Core PPI decreased to 2.6% from 2.9%, falling short of the anticipated 2.7%.
- Retail Sales increased by 0.2% month-over-month in September, a deceleration from the 0.6% rise recorded in August, suggesting a more cautious approach to consumer spending. The Conference Board has indicated a notable decline in household sentiment, as Consumer Confidence fell by 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, down from 95.5 in October.
- In Germany, the economy experienced stagnation in Q3, with the preliminary print reflecting 0% QoQ. On a yearly basis, GDP was 0.3%, as anticipated, aligning with the prior reading. Nonetheless, the largest economy in the Eurozone persisted in demonstrating signs of weakness.
- This week, market participants are focused on the upcoming economic data, especially the Initial Jobless Claims report scheduled for Wednesday, adjusted due to the Thanksgiving holiday.