EUR/USD stabilizes in Friday’s North American session, set to finish both the week and November positively with gains of 0.81% and 0.59%, respectively, as market participants seem assured that the Federal Reserve will make rate cuts in December. The pair is currently at 1.1601, having bounced back from daily lows of 1.1555.
EUR/USD remains steady as market participants look forward to a possible easing from the Fed in the coming month. The probability of a Fed cut increased to 87% after the cautious comments from Williams and Waller, despite conflicting signals from US inflation and employment figures. Eurozone HICP surpasses forecasts as ECB signals the end of the easing cycle, enhancing the likelihood of further EUR/USD gains.
> The Euro wraps up the week and month favorably, as the Fed’s dovish approach takes precedence over the mixed economic indicators from the US : The US Dollar holds steady amid growing speculation regarding a possible rate cut. According to the reports, there is an 87% likelihood of a 25-basis points cut to the fed funds rate at the upcoming December meeting. The repricing was shaped by the cautious comments from New York Fed’s John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who both showed backing for reducing borrowing costs at the forthcoming December meeting. The information showed a varied scenario over the course of the week. Producer-side inflation has stabilized, and the jobs data released by the US Department of Labor showed a decline in the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits compared to the last report. In Germany, Retail Sales for October did not meet expectations, while the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for November exceeded predictions, approaching the 3% level. In France, the Gross Domestic Product for Q3 aligned with expectations and the preliminary reading, while Spanish HICP surpassed the 3% threshold. Given recent developments, the EUR/USD trajectory seems to lean towards an upward trend, with signals from the European Central Bank indicating that its easing cycle has come to an end, while there are anticipations for the Fed to make cuts in December. Next week’s US economic calendar is poised to be active, featuring the November ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Industrial Production, the ADP Employment Change report, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29.
Latest FX Rate Trends : Euro poised for further gains as Dollar exhibits signs of decline
- The shared currency is affected by a weak US Dollar, as shown by the US Dollar Index. The index that measures the dollar’s value relative to a group of six currencies has decreased by 0.08%, currently standing at 99.44.
- The yearly rate of Germany’s HICP rose to 2.6%, exceeding the expected 2.4% and up from 2.3% in September. In France, the GDP for Q3 2025 rose by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding forecasts and showing improvement from a flat 0% in Q2.
- In November, Spain’s HICP noted a year-over-year rise of 3.1%, a minor drop from the prior month’s 3.2%, but still exceeding the expected figure of 2.9%.