EUR/USD remains stable on Thursday following a strong jobs report from the United States, indicating that the labor market continues to be robust, even as it shows signs of softening in the latter half of 2025. At this moment, the pair is valued at 1.1533.
EUR/USD stands at 1.1538, with strong US job growth offsetting a less favorable unemployment figure. The probability of a rate cut in December has increased to 39% as markets react to the mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials. The Eurozone sentiment holds firm at -14.2, while German producer prices meet expectations, leading to a negligible impact.
> The Euro continues to hold steady Given the encouraging US jobs data, investors have heightened their anticipation for a rate cut in December : The restart of activities in the US government guarantees that economic data will continue to be shared, despite any setbacks. Remarkably, the September Nonfarm Payrolls, initially set to be released on the first Friday of October, greatly surpassed expectations. Even so, there were a few unfavorable signs as the Unemployment Rate rose, though it remained aligned with the Federal Reserve’s latest projections. After the data release, investors adjusted their expectations for a possible decrease in borrowing costs by the Fed at the December meeting, raising the likelihood from 29% to 39%, according to the reports. Federal Reserve officials had shared their messages. Sources showing a hawkish stance included Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack, and Fed Governor Michael Barr. The recent announcement surprised the markets, raising worries about inflation staying at 3%. In the Eurozone, Consumer Confidence stood at -14.2 in November, remaining steady from October, and reaching the highest level since February. Germany revealed that producer prices mostly aligned with forecasts, yet their impact on the Euro was limited.
Latest FX Rate Trends : Strong NFP data constrains Euro’s recovery
- In September, US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 119K, greatly exceeding the expected 50K and indicating a significant rebound from August’s –4K result. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, but it remains under the Federal Reserve’s 2025 prediction of 4.5% as outlined in the Summary of Economic Projections.
- The Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15 decreased to 220K — the lowest level since September — suggesting that the labor market, despite some softening, continues to show signs of stability.
- Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee suggested that a 3% inflation rate is too high and appears to have hit a plateau. He conveyed that he feels “uneasy about preemptively implementing too many rate reductions.” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cautioned that easing monetary policy at this time could encourage excessive financial risk-taking. She warned that “reducing rates could extend elevated inflation,” and pointed out that present financial conditions remain “rather supportive.”
- Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr conveyed a strong stance, highlighting his continued worry that inflation remains around 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
- The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six currencies, has increased by 0.10% to reach 100.22, thereby limiting the Euro’s progress.