The EUR/USD pair fell to approximately 1.1700 following the European Central Bank’s decision to keep key interest rates steady, a move that was largely expected and offered minimal new direction for the single currency. The main refinancing rate was maintained at 2.15%, while the deposit facility rate remained steady at 2.0%. ECB officials reaffirmed their dedication to a meeting-by-meeting, data-driven strategy.
During the subsequent press conference, President Christine Lagarde indicated that policymakers did not deliberate on a rate hike or a cut at this time. She highlighted that the ECB lacks a predetermined trajectory for interest rates and, due to the current high level of uncertainty, is unable to offer forward guidance on upcoming policy actions. The central bank concurrently published its most recent quarterly economic forecasts. Revisions to growth forecasts indicate an increase to 1.4% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. The inflation outlook for 2026 has been revised upward, largely due to ongoing price pressures within the services sector.
On the H4 chart, the pair has executed a corrective rebound to 1.1760 and is currently establishing a downward impulse aimed at 1.1706. A decline beneath this level is expected, establishing the subsequent local bearish target at 1.1640. This situation is validated by the MACD indicator. The signal line is situated above zero yet is trending sharply downward, indicating persistent bearish momentum and the possibility of an additional continuation of the downtrend. On the H1 chart, the market has completed an initial decline to 1.1705, succeeded by a correction to 1.1755. A second downward movement towards 1.1705 is currently in progress. A decisive move beneath this support could indicate the likelihood of a third wave of decline, aiming for the 1.1645 level as a local target. The current perspective is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line remains beneath the 50 level and is showing a strong downward trend.
The euro continues to trade within a narrow range after a relatively uneventful ECB meeting, as the central bank’s careful, data-driven approach provides minimal backing. The technical framework indicates a potential for additional downside risk, as a breach beneath the immediate support level at 1.1705 is expected to initiate a movement towards the 1.1640 region.