EUR/USD remains steady at approximately 1.1750, showing little movement following the recent US jobs report, which bolstered the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may persist with its easing cycle into the upcoming year. As of the current moment, the pair has recorded slight losses of 0.04%.
EUR/USD remains stable as US employment figures bolster anticipations for ongoing Federal Reserve easing through 2026. The increase in US unemployment does not enhance the likelihood of a rate cut in January, resulting in limited sentiment for the US Dollar. Hawkish Fed rhetoric and Trump’s potential Chair shortlist introduce uncertainty into the outlook for the US Dollar.
> The Euro remains steady following the confirmation of a cooling labor market in the US payrolls report, while the US Dollar continues to trade within a narrow range : The US Nonfarm Payrolls data for October and November was published earlier on Tuesday, confirming the anticipated trend of a declining labor market. The Unemployment Rate increased beyond the FOMC’s December forecasts, yet it did not enhance the likelihood of a rate cut during the January 28 meeting. The US Dollar Index, which assesses the American currency relative to six others, remains nearly unchanged at 98.21, posing a challenge for the EUR/USD progression. Recently, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed a hawkish stance, indicating that he would have preferred to keep the fed funds rate unchanged at the December meeting. As of the current analysis, the swaps market has incorporated 59.8 basis points of easing anticipated by December 2026. Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal article disclosed that US President Donald Trump is preparing to interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller for the Federal Reserve’s top position, thereby including his name alongside National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. A poll indicates that economists anticipate the European Central Bank will maintain its current stance through 2026, as they predict inflation will stay subdued, while the economy is expected to demonstrate resilience. As we approach the week, it is anticipated that the ECB will maintain its current rates during the meeting on December 18.
Latest FX Rate Trends : Euro struggles to gain traction following soft US jobs data
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic observed that the jobs report presented a mixed picture and did not alter the outlook, expressing a preference for keeping rates unchanged at the last Fed meeting. He indicated that “multiple surveys” are pointing to elevated input costs and that companies are resolute in maintaining their margins by raising prices.
- Bostic remarked, “Price pressures are not just coming from tariffs [and that the] Fed should not be hasty to declare victory,” further noting his projection for GDP in 2026 at approximately 2.5%.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 64K in November, surpassing expectations of 50K and indicating an improvement from October’s -105K figure. However, the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.6% from 4.4%, surpassing the 4.5% forecast.
- US Retail Sales remained unchanged in October at 0.0% MoM, a decline from September’s 0.1% increase and falling short of expectations for a 0.1% rise. In contrast, Control-Group Sales, which are utilized to assess the consumer spending segment of GDP, experienced a recovery during the same timeframe, increasing by 0.8% following a prior contraction of 0.1%.
- Discussions regarding a peace agreement in Ukraine are still in progress. The United States has extended NATO-style security guarantees to Kyiv after discussions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Berlin, a development that has given a slight boost to the Euro.