The most recent UK GDP figures indicated an annualised growth rate of 1.3%, aligning with market forecasts and marginally lower than the prior reading of 1.4%. The report exhibited a largely neutral effect on sterling, as it affirms that the UK economy is still growing, though at a measured rate, with no indications of a rapid increase. The primary observation for the GBP/USD pair is the absence of any unexpected developments. Given that the data aligns with consensus forecasts, there appears to be minimal incentive for investors to reevaluate their existing macroeconomic perspective. In such scenarios, the pound typically does not garner new buying interest while simultaneously evading significant selling pressure.
Nonetheless, the minor slowdown in growth compared to the previous period establishes a somewhat prudent context for sterling. The softer figure could indicate that the economy is still vulnerable to high interest rates and weak domestic demand. This analysis may moderate anticipations regarding additional monetary tightening from the Bank of England and restrict the potential for more aggressive communication. In the short term, the immediate market effect of this GDP release is viewed as predominantly neutral, though there is a slight downside inclination for the pound. The forthcoming trajectory will probably hinge on the impending UK inflation and labor market data, in conjunction with shifting US interest rate anticipations and the overall global risk appetite.
The H4 chart indicates that the pair is currently situated within a wide consolidation zone at approximately 1.3418. We foresee a potential extension of the range towards 1.3500 in the near term, succeeded by a corrective pullback to 1.3418. Following the conclusion of this retracement, it is anticipated that the overarching upward trend will continue, aiming for a target of 1.3520, with the possibility of extending further to 1.3550. The current outlook is reinforced by the MACD indicator, which shows its signal line above zero and trending decisively upward.
On the H1 chart, the price action exhibited a narrow consolidation near 1.3424 prior to a breakout, leading to an upward movement towards 1.3492 (a local target). A corrective decline is anticipated to retest the 1.3424 level from above. Upon the conclusion of this correction, attention will turn to the possibility of a following growth wave targeting 1.3533. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned above 80 and starting to decline towards the 20 level, suggesting imminent corrective momentum. The GBP/USD pair is expected to stay within a defined range following the GDP data, which does not significantly bolster or undermine the narrative surrounding the sterling. While the technical structure indicates potential for further upside in the medium term, the near-term price action implies that a phase of consolidation or slight correction might occur before any resurgence of bullish momentum.