The USD/CHF pair demonstrated strength following the release of soft U.S. CPI data, supporting a range-bound yet constructive outlook. Central bank dynamics continue to point toward potential downside support, while a longer-term bullish breakout in USD/CHF could emerge if key technical levels are breached. The pair experienced notable volatility during Thursday’s session, which was expected given the heavy slate of economic releases. The primary catalyst was the U.S. year-on-year CPI print at 2.7%, undershooting expectations of 3.1%.
Initially, USD/CHF showed some softness after the inflation data, but the U.S. dollar quickly regained footing against the Swiss franc, a development that should not be overlooked. Dollar resilience is frequently underestimated by market participants. At the same time, USD/CHF reflects a unique dynamic, as the Swiss franc retains its status as a safe-haven currency, often dampening sharp directional moves and reinforcing range-bound behavior.
A key factor shaping the outlook for USD/CHF is the Swiss National Bank. The SNB has openly expressed discomfort with an overly strong franc and has reiterated its willingness to intervene if appreciation accelerates. This stance suggests the presence of a potential support base near the 0.79 level in USD/CHF. That said, the SNB’s primary focus typically remains the euro-franc exchange rate, though spillover effects often influence dollar-franc movements as well.
Overall, USD/CHF is a market that warrants close monitoring. The pair appears to be supported structurally, and the positive carry associated with holding positions adds to the constructive bias. While price action remains confined within a defined range, that framework still allows for a tactical approach—buying dips and selling rallies. A sustained break above the 200-day EMA would significantly improve the bullish case for USD/CHF, likely coinciding with broader U.S. dollar strength and presenting a meaningful opportunity as early next year approaches.