The EUR/USD pair has increased for the second straight day and is nearing the level of 1.1819. Sentiment regarding the US dollar continues to face challenges due to the prevailing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy, leading to a decline in confidence in the American currency. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that tariff rates for specific countries might rise from the existing 10% to 15% or more, although he did not clarify the criteria for these adjustments. President Donald Trump took a calculated approach regarding tariffs during his annual address to Congress. Simultaneously, he emphasized his commitment to maintaining his strategy, regardless of the Supreme Court’s ruling to annul his extensive “reciprocal” duties.
The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain the current interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Heightened caution arises from the ongoing discussions between the US and Iran regarding the nuclear program, with the next round occurring today in Geneva. On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is establishing a consolidation range near 1.1818. An upward movement towards 1.1862 seems probable, with potential for further extension towards 1.1888. From a technical perspective, this scenario is validated by the MACD indicator: its signal line stays above zero and is trending upwards, indicating persistent bullish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the pair is forming the next upward wave targeting 1.1860. Following this level, a retracement to 1.1818 may occur, prior to a further rise towards 1.1888. This scenario is technically validated by the Stochastic oscillator, which shows its signal line positioned above 50 and trending upwards towards 80. In conclusion, EUR/USD is steadily rebounding as ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariff policy impacts sentiment towards the dollar. Trump’s Congressional address did not provide clarity regarding trade issues, and the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran introduce a degree of geopolitical caution; however, the technical outlook continues to appear positive.
The pair is gaining traction within a consolidation range, with upside targets set at 1.1862 and 1.1888. The MACD and Stochastic indicators align with the bullish sentiment, indicating that additional gains are probable in the short term. The critical level to monitor is 1.1818 – maintaining a position above this support sustains the upward trend, whereas a drop below may indicate a brief halt. Currently, the most straightforward trajectory seems to be upward.