AUD/USD maintains its losses as the US Dollar strengthens amid ongoing concerns regarding energy-driven inflation in the United States. Traders are anticipating the release of the US September jobs data, with expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls to decelerate to an increase of 90,000 positions. CBA anticipates that the RBA’s rate hikes have reached a temporary halt; however, the November meeting remains a possibility contingent upon forthcoming inflation data. For the fifth day in a row, AUD/USD is still muted, trading around 0.6930 on Friday at Asian time. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar receives strong support from persistent inflation concerns stemming from elevated energy costs, alongside market expectations of higher US interest rates.
Ahead of Friday’s release of the US September employment data, traders are closely monitoring for indications concerning the future trajectory of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Economists anticipate that Nonfarm Payrolls will reflect an increase of 90,000 jobs, indicating a deceleration from the 162,000 jobs added in the preceding month. Concurrently, the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%. Meanwhile, Matt Comyn, chief executive of Australia’s largest bank, Commonwealth Bank, noted that while CBA believes the Reserve Bank of Australia has finished hiking interest rates for now, the board’s November meeting remains “live” with another rise still a possibility. In a conversation with ABC’s Alan Kohler, he underscored that the forthcoming decision by the RBA will be significantly influenced by the quarterly inflation data set to be released at the month’s conclusion.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur recognises that “there’s no question that inflation is still too high, and it will take a while before it returns to the middle of the target range,” yet contends that the Reserve Bank of Australia is improbable to react with additional swift tightening. Highlighting the delayed effects of prior interest rate increases and the growing fragility in the real estate market, he indicates that the RBA is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach to evaluate the consequences of existing policies, thereby leaving the Australian Dollar without substantial further backing from imminent rate hikes. In the daily chart, AUD/USD is positioned at 0.6930, continuing its descent beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages, which collectively suggest a bearish near-term outlook, with the pair constrained by a convergence of dynamic resistance above.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (14) has descended into oversold territory near 25, indicating that selling pressure is extended. However, as long as the price remains below these moving averages, any rebounds are expected to be corrective rather than indicative of a trend change. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the nine-period EMA around 0.6993, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50-period EMA near 0.7073, where sellers would be expected to reassert control if tested. On the downside, the current price around 0.6927 serves as a short-term pivot, while a more significant structural support is positioned at the horizontal level of 0.6667, where a deeper extension of the downtrend may seek a base if the present slide persists.
