Dollar firm overall, but oil price jump boosts commodity currencies

The dollar gave up some of its recent gains on Thursday after a 10% jump in oil prices boosted commodity-linked currencies, though uncertainties over the coronavirus pandemic kept the safe-haven greenback strong against other major currencies.

Oil prices leapt on hopes that U.S. diplomacy would succeed in persuading top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia to end a price war that has driven the crude oil market to its lowest levels in almost two decades, and on a Bloomberg report on China’s oil purchases.

That lifted commodity-linked currencies, with the Australian dollar gaining 0.6% to $0.6110, and the Canadian dollar firming 0.65% to C$1.4146.

But against most major currencies, the U.S. dollar held firm, as investors unnerved by the massive disruption to global trade caused by the pandemic took comfort from holding cash dollars.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood flat at 99.470 after a gain of 0.53% overnight as the U.S. currency advanced against most of its major peers.

The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.0947 after a 0.69% fall on Wednesday.

The safe-haven yen, meantime, eased slightly, trading at 107.24 yen per dollar after hitting a two-week high of 106.925 on Wednesday.

Markets were spooked after U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning late Tuesday that Americans faced a “painful” two weeks ahead in fighting the coronavirus.

“If America’s optimistic president is warning the worst of the pandemic is yet to come, what factory in their right mind would keep the doors open and workers on the payroll?” asked Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.

“With only a few actual data points so far, the results indicate this is looking more like a depression than a garden-variety recession.”

The starkest evidence of the damage came last week when weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, one of the earliest gauges of economic trends, jumped to 3.28 million, blowing past the previous record of 695,000 set in 1982.

The next jobless claims data, due at 1230 GMT, is expected to show another 3.50 million applications last week.

Economists’ forecast in a Reuters poll range from 1.5 million to 5.25 million.

“As we’ve seen yesterday, a deterioration in the U.S. economic outlook is likely to lead to strength in the yen against the U.S. dollar,” said Shin-ichiro Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays.