Dollar gains as foreign exchange volatility drops

The dollar held near three-week highs on Tuesday as a drop in market volatility ramped up demand for riskier assets.

With 10-year U.S. Treasury yields up by more than 20 basis points over the past four weeks to a one-month high, demand for U.S.-denominated assets has grown.

Broader market moves were quiet as financial markets reopened after the Easter holiday.

The dollar index against a basket of six key rivals rose to 97.39, edging toward the 2019 high of 97.71 struck in early March.

“We are in a very range-bound market with the broader picture being more positive for the dollar relative to the euro after the weak eurozone PMI manufacturing data last week,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX strategy at Commerzbank.

Data released overnight showed U.S. existing-home sales fell more than expected in March. Figures for new-home sales will be released later in the day.

Those may provide some pointers to the state of the U.S. economy. A clearer picture should emerge from the gross domestic product report set for release on Friday.

Support for the dollar came amid a general drop in market volatility. Expected moves in the euro/dollar exchange rate over a one-month period held near a five-year low of 4.50 vol.

The dollar’s moves against the euro and sterling were small, with the single currency lower at $1.1243 and the pound up at $1.2986.

Dollar firm in thin post-holiday trade, loonie up as oil prices jump

The dollar edged up against key peers such as the euro and the yen on Monday, boosted by the relative strength of the U.S. economy, while losing ground against the Canadian dollar following a rise in crude oil prices.

Financial markets in Australia, Hong Kong and many major countries in Europe are closed on Monday for the Easter holiday. Currency trading continues globally but volume is expected to be light.

The dollar was lackluster against the loonie as crude oil prices rose more than 2 percent following a Washington Post report the United States is likely to ask all importers of Iranian oil to end their purchases or will be subject to U.S. sanctions.

The greenback has found support in recent weeks on the back of a gradual rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and signs of strength in the world’s top economy, including better-than-expected retail sales in March, following a weak start to the year.

“It’s better to say that the euro has been weak rather than that the dollar is strong,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

“Traders have mostly priced in the weakness of the euro zone economy by now,” Ishizuki said. “It’s a little bit difficult to see the euro weakening further from here, so I think it will be hard for the dollar to strengthen.”

The dollar index was last down a tenth of a percent at 97.383, drifting slightly lower after booking a 0.4-percent gain last week.

The index remained within striking distance of its 2019 high of 97.71 brushed in early March.

Investors’ immediate focus will be on U.S. existing home sales for March, due at 1400 GMT, for further clues on the health of the U.S. economy.

“Yields on U.S. bonds have picked up a bit. I think the dollar is bought to a certain extent in reaction to that,” said Kazushige Kaida, head of foreign exchange at State Street Bank.

In February, U.S. home sales surged to their highest in 11 months, as the housing market showed renewed momentum following a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The euro gave up nearly 0.1 percent to $1.1240, adding to last week’s losses of nearly half a percent after data on Thursday showed that activity in Germany’smanufacturing sector shrank for a fourth straight month in April.

Sterling was last a shade lower at $1.2996, dipping below the $1.30 handle and nearly 0.4 percent off a two-month low of $1.2945 hit last month.

The Canadian dollar gained about a quarter of a percent to C$1.3360 on the back of the rise in crude oil prices following the Washington Post report.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was about 0.1 percent higher at 111.94 yen, within reach of this year’s peak of 112.17 hit on Wednesday last week.

Starting on Saturday, on Japan will have an unprecedented 10-day holiday from late April to early May to mark the ascension of the new emperor, Crown Prince Naruhito.

Daiwa’s Ishizuki said he expected currency trading by Japanese investors to remain relatively light as traders and companies are shifting into holiday mode.

Dollar steadies after upbeat US data amid holiday-thin trade

The dollar steadied against a basket of currencies on Friday after hitting a 2.5-week high overnight as data pointed to a sturdy U.S. economy, while the euro was dented by weak manufacturing activity in Europe.

Many financial markets were closed for the Good Friday Easter holiday.

Currency markets remain open but volume is expected to be light.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose to as high as 97.485 overnight, its highest level since April 2. It last traded at 97.392 on Friday, down 0.1% on the day.

U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1.5-years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start.

The economy’s strength was reinforced by other data on Thursday showing the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest in nearly 50 years last week.

“In addition to the recent upticks in Chinese data, the latest U.S. retail sales numbers have helped to ease investor worries about the global economy. It’s pretty quiet trading due to the Easter holiday, though,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

The picture was less bullish in the euro zone as data on Thursday showed that activity in Germany’s manufacturing sector shrank for a fourth straight month in April.

The euro fell against the dollar to as low as 1.1226, its lowest level in 1.5 weeks, after the worse-than-expected data from the Europe’s largest economy.

The single currency was last up 0.1% against the U.S. dollar at $1.1242, up 0.1% on the day.

In contrast, the weak European data pushed the yen higher to its one-week high of 111.765 yen at one point on late Thursday. The yen last stood at 111.935 yen to the dollar, within the recent narrow range.

The release of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russia’s role in the 2016 U.S. election had little impact on markets.

Yen near this year’s lows as risk appetite improves

The yen hovered near its lowest level this year on Monday as more signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings season prompted investors to abandon the safe-haven currency to seek higher returns elsewhere.

The dollar firmed to 112.02 yen, near Friday’s high of 112.10, which was near its year-to-date high of 112.135 touched in early March.

The safe-haven Swiss franc has also eased against the euro, which strengthened to 1.1329 franc, recovering its losses made late last month to hit a three-week high on the franc.

The common currency traded at $1.1304, keeping intact its slow recovery from $1.1183 touched on April 2. It rose to as high as $1.1324 on Friday.

Chinese data published on Friday showed exports rebounded sharply and new bank loans increased far more than expected in March.

Although China’s imports remained weak, the data on the whole cemented hopes that the Chinese economy is bottoming out after a soft patch as Beijing has curbed de-leveraging efforts and stepped up support for the economy in recent months.

U.S. stocks also rallied on Friday on strong earnings from JPMorgan and an 11.5-percent jump in Walt Disney on news that it will start streaming services.

The S&P 500 index has reached its highest level in six months, coming within sight of testing a record high marked in September last year.

The more positive mood helped offset any concerns about upcoming trade talks between the United States and Japan, in which Washington is expected to include a currency provision in a bilateral trade agreement.

“We are seeing a classical risk-on market,” said Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at MUFG Bank.

But Uchida also believes the dollar’s upside may be limited, given that speculators have already built up large long positions in the U.S. currency.

Data from U.S. watchdog on Friday showed speculators bolstered their net long U.S. dollar position in the latest week, pushing it to the highest since December 2015.

Against the yen, their net dollar long position was at the highest in about three months.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar stood at $0.7173, having hit a 1-1/2-month high of $0.71925.

The British pound fetched $1.3080, stuck in its recent trading range as fears of a no-deal Brexit have receded for now.

Euro gains in surprise move driven by flows linked to Japan

The euro gained on Friday in a move dealers said may have be driven by anticipated currency demand arising from a Japanese bank’s plans to purchase a German multi-billion dollar aviation finance business.

The jump in the common currency occurred late in Friday’s Asia session and saw the euro rise to a 2-1/2-week high.

Markets are often quiet in the hours before European trade opens and thin liquidity has in recent months caused sudden jolts or “flash crashes” in major currencies including the Swiss franc.

But the heavily-traded euro-dollar currency pair, with a daily turnover of over $1 trillion, has recently traded in a narrow range at a time when volatility in foreign exchange markets is at a multi-year low, said Elisabeth Andreae, an FX strategist at Commerzbank.

“It is remarkable that particularly in this market environment we see jumps even in EUR-USD typically during Asian trading times. This morning we saw a move from $1.1260 to $1.1290 in one fell swoop,” she said.

The euro rose 0.35 percent to $1.1289 after touching $1.1294, its highest since March 26. The common currency also advanced about 0.4 percent to 126.23 yen, its strongest since March 21.

Dealers said speculators were buying the euro in response to reports on Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s planned purchase of the aviation financing business of Germany’s DZ Bank. As of June last year, the portfolio of that business stood at 5.6 billion euros.

The transaction was announced on March 1 and MUFG said the transaction was expected to close after June.

Pressured by the stronger euro, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was down 0.2 percent at 96.991, giving up most of the previous day’s gains.

Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo expected the common currency to hold on to its gains.

“It is not really a surprise that the euro is capable of reacting quickly to potentially positive factors, given the fundamentals surrounding the euro zone economy are showing signs of improvement.”

This week both France and Italy reported higher than expected industrial output in February, offering positive signs for the bloc after some downbeat data.

With the dollar broadly lower, the pound rose 0.2 percent to $1.3078 to cancel out most of the previous day’s losses.

Volatility for sterling plunged after a midweek deal at an emergency European Union summit to postpone Britain’s exit from the bloc to Oct. 31. The deal meant Britain would not crash out this week without an agreement.

Fed minutes cap dollar, pound steady after Brexit extension

The dollar hovered near two-week lows on Thursday as Federal Reserveminutes reinforced its recent dovish policy tilt while the pound held steady after European leaders extended the deadline for Britain to leave the union.

Currency markets are also awaiting key economic data from the world’s second-largest economy with March Chinese trade figures due on Friday and first quarter gross domestic product due next week.

The U.S. dollar lacked momentum, with its index against six other currencies hovering near a two-week low, as the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting cemented its recent dovish policy stance with no change to rates expected this year.

The dollar index last stood at 96.93, flat on the day after having slipped to a two-week low of 96.823 on Wednesday.

U.S. central bankers also debated possible policy moves the Fed could make after it ends its balance sheet reduction program by September, with some advocating purchases of U.S. Treasury securities at that point.

“Some people say the minutes contained few surprises but a close look suggests the Fed is likely to become more dovish as time goes by,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.

The U.S. consumer price data released on Wednesday also painted a mixed picture, with annual core CPI inflation slipping to 2.0 percent in March, the smallest increase since February 2018.

The dollar changed hands at 111.07 yen, having fallen 0.58 percent so far this week.

The greenback also gave up its earlier gains against the euro that were driven on Wednesday when European Central Bank President Mario Draghiunderscored growing risks facing the euro zone economy.

The ECB left its ultra-easy stance unchanged as expected and Draghi noted that economic data was weak.

He also confirmed the ECB was considering if measures were needed to mitigate the impact on banks of its negative deposit rates as well as the pricing of new cheap two-year loans to banks.

The euro last held at $1.1276, recovering from Wednesday’s low of $1.12295, keeping intact its slow uptrend from $1.1183 touched on April 2.

It is up 0.52 percent so far, which will be its first weekly gains in four weeks if sustained.

The British pound stood little changed at $1.3097, staying in a triangle holding pattern between $1.2945 and $1.3380 during the past month or so.

Sterling showed no reaction after the EU delayed the deadline for Brexit for the second time in less than a month, in line with market expectations that Britain will not crash out of the bloc on Friday without a deal.

Still, the decision did little to boost clarity on exactly how, when, or even if at all, the UK will leave the EU, is keeping the pound in check.

“At least there won’t be a no-deal Brexit this month. But while I’m no expert on British politics, it seems difficult for the parliament to come to any agreement,” said Kazushige Kaida, head of forex at State Street Bank.

“They just kicked the can down the road. Once the dust settles, I would expect to see selling in sterling,” he added.

The implied volatilities on the pound’s options plunged, with three-month volatilities falling to 8.325/8.825 percent, a level last seen in late August.

It has slipped below the actual volatilities over the past three months, which stood at 9.17 percent on Thursday.

The Australian dollar dipped 0.15 percent to $0.7157, having hit a six-week high of $0.7175 on Wednesday after the country’s central banker signaled the outlook for interest rates was still uncertain and stopped well short of adopting an outright easing bias as some had wagered on.

It barely moved after China’s factory-gate inflation picked up for the first time in nine months in March, edging away from deflationary territory, in a fresh sign of a boost to economic activity from stimulus.

Commodity currencies including the Aussie were also helped by recent firmness in commodity prices.

The South African rand traded at 13.9175 to the dollar, having touched a six-week high of 13.8975 the previous day.

Global trade tension, growth worries underpin yen; Brexit summit in focus

The safe-haven yen remained in demand on Wednesday as investor caution prevailed due to fresh U.S.-Europe trade tensions and the International Monetary Fund’s downgrade of its global economic outlook.

Most major currencies were locked in narrow trading ranges as market participants largely kept to the sidelines ahead of a crucial Brexit summit meeting and a rate decision by the European Central Bank later in the day.

Broader sentiment in the market remained subdued as the flare-up between the United States and Europe added to other potential global flashpoints over trade, including Sino-U.S. negotiations.

“Now, there are battles on two fronts for the U.S.,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street Bank.

“If they’re going to be driving the global economy, it’ll be inherently more difficult if they’re fighting all these trade wars… on multiple fronts,” he said.

Against a basket of key rival currencies, the dollar drifted slightly higher to 97.036.

The dollar was a shade lower at 111.135 yen. From a more than three-week high of 111.825 brushed on Friday, the U.S. unit has fallen almost two-thirds of a percent.

Daiwa Securities senior currency strategist Yukio Ishizuki said the Japanese currency found further support ahead of an unprecedented 10-day holiday from late April to early May in Japan to mark the ascension of the new emperor, Crown Prince Naruhito.

“Above anything else, Japanese companies are conservatively managing operations. At the current stage, many of them will naturally be selling the dollar,” Ishizuki said.

“It’ll be easy for the yen to strengthen until the 10-day holiday is over,” he added.

The Australian dollar was up 0.1 percent at $0.7129, erasing an earlier loss after it found support on a speech from a senior Australian central bank official.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is keeping a close eye on how the divergence between a seemingly slowing economy and a strong labour market resolves itself to help determine where policy rates are headed, Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said.

On Monday, the U.S. Trade Representative proposed a list of European Unionproducts ranging from large commercial aircraft and parts to dairy products and wine on which to slap tariffs as retaliation for European aircraft subsidies.

The IMF on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecasts for 2019 to 3.3 percent, the slowest expansion since 2016 and from its earlier projection of 3.5 percent in January.

The global lender said a sharp downturn could require world leaders to coordinate stimulus measures.

Investors’ immediate focus on Wednesday will be on the ECB rate decision, a news conference by ECB President Mario Draghi and the release of minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting.

Ahead of the Brexit summit meeting, the euro and sterling were largely unchanged, trading at $1.1258 and $1.3052, respectively.

European Union leaders will likely grant Prime Minister Theresa May a second delay to Britain’s exit from the EU but they could demand she accepts a much longer extension as France pushed for conditions to limit Britain’s ability to undermine the bloc.

The latest IMF forecasts, together with a pullback in oil prices, put pressure on commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar.

The loonie was a shade weaker at C$1.3334 after retreating overnight from its strongest level since March 21.

Dollar dips as crude oil surge supports commodity currencies

The dollar was shackled on Tuesday by a combination of weak U.S. economic data and gains for commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars which drew support from an extended surge in crude oil prices.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies inched down 0.05 percent to 97.001 after losing 0.35 percent the previous day, marking its biggest daily decline since March 20.

On top of the pressure from buoyant commodity-linked currencies, the dollar was weighed by data showing U.S. durable goods orders declined in February and a bounce in the euro as investors squared positions ahead of a looming European Central Bank meeting.

“The dollar’s strength peaked out towards the end of last week, when the U.S. jobs data showed that wage increases had slowed. The currency hasn’t been able to find traction since,” said Shin Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

“And the latest bounce in U.S. yields did not provide much lift for the dollar as they still remain at low levels in absolute terms.”

The 10-year Treasury yield bounced to 2.52 percent, edging further away from a 15-month low of 2.34 percent plumbed at the end of March.

The yield was still significantly below its recent highs around 2.8 percent hit in early March.

The Canadian dollar was little changed at C$1.3312 per dollar after gaining more than 0.5 percent overnight.

The Australian dollar was steady at $0.7128 having risen 0.3 percent the previous day.

Oil prices have surged to five-month highs on expectations that global supplies would tighten due to fighting in Libya, OPEC-led cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

“Themes such as U.S.-China trade talks and Brexit are turning rather stale and no longer providing the currency market with as much incentive. The rally in crude gave the market something to focus on under such conditions, ” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street Bank.

The Norwegian kroner held to its gains and stood at 8.543 per dollar after rallying 0.7 percent the previous day on higher crude.

The kroner was also boosted after Norges Bank Governor Oeystein Olsen said on Monday that the central bank will continue to hike interest rates over the coming months.

Oil-rich Norway stands alone among other developed economies in tightening monetary policy, thanks to rising crude prices and higher-than-anticipated economic growth and inflation.

The euro was effectively flat at $1.1265 after advancing 0.4 percent on Monday, when it ended a two-day losing streak.

The pound edged up 0.1 percent to $1.3078, having traded in a narrow range so far this week, reflecting nervousness in the market about key Brexit talks between British Prime Minister Theresa May and the opposition Labour Party.

Britain is due to leave the European Union on Friday but May is seeking a compromise with the Labour Party regarding terms for Brexit ahead of an EU leaders’ summit on Wednesday.

May heads to Berlin and Paris on Tuesday to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron before setting out the case for another delay at Wednesday’s EU summit in Brussels.

The dollar shed 0.1 percent to 111.37 yen to put additional distance between a three-week peak of 111.825 scaled on Friday.

Euro nears one-month lows as caution grows

The euro sat near a one-month low hit last week as investors grew cautious about the outlook for the currency before a European Central Bank meeting this week.

Traders cut their long euro positions by their biggest margin in nine months last week, according to weekly positioning data as core European bond yields entered negative territory and as PMI data indicated a euro zone economy struggling to gain traction.

“We are seeing more euro scepticism in the market as expectations of an ECB rate hike has changed from the foreseeable future, with no firm timeline in sight,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, a currency strategist at Commerzbank in London.

While the single currency was slightly higher on the day at $1.1228, it remained within striking distance of a one-month low of $1.1183 hit last week.

No policy changes are expected at this week’s ECB meeting, but the press conference afterwards will be in sharp focus amid talk of tiered rates to ease pressure on banks, global recession fears and a sense of alarm that pushed 10-year German bond yields below zero percent for the first time since 2016.

Risk appetite was broadly muted across the currency markets with the yenstronger and the Australian dollar weaker as concerns about the outlook for the global economy weighed on sentiment.

The dollar was also weighed down by softening bond yields. The greenback was 0.3 percent lower at 111.385 yen after briefly popping up to a three-week high of 111.825 on Friday following the U.S. jobs report.

The Australian dollar dipped 0.1 percent to $0.7095 in the wake of declining prices of commodities such as copper.

The pound held near a one-week low as France and the Netherlands expressed doubt about May’s plan to further delay Brexit. Sterling last traded at $1.3050 for a gain of 0.1 percent.

Trade optimism supports dollar ahead of jobs report

Optimism for a U.S.-China trade deal helped the dollar hit a three-week high against the yen on Friday, although moves in broader foreign exchange markets were limited as investors saw a lot of headlines but no conclusions out of the trade talks.

Xinhua reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping had said progress was being made in trade talks with Washington and called for an early conclusion of negotiations.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a deal could be announced in about four weeks, but warned it would be difficult to let China trade with the United States if remaining issues were not resolved.

The dollar rose to a three-week high of 111.8 yen per dollar while holding firm against most other currencies. The offshore yuan also rose 0.2 percent to 6.7065.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar was flat, however, and the European session opened with most major currencies trading in tight ranges.

The focus for the day is U.S. labour market data due out at 1230 GMT, which will help traders decide how the U.S. economy is holding up. MUFG analysts said the market was “struggling for direction” before the jobs report.

Expectations are for a rebound in jobs growth in March and a weak February. ING analysts said that should the data show 160,000 to 170,000 jobs were produced in March the dollar would gain.

“Such an NFP (non-farm payrolls) release should prove slightly positive for the dollar against the low-yielders ($/JPY to 112.20), but probably good for risk assets in general – confirming that US domestic demand should stay strong and allaying recession fears,” they said in a note.

The euro rose slightly to 1.1228, its gains capped after data released on Thursday showed German industrial order dropped in February.

Sterling strengthened back towards $1.31 as a senior European Union source said Donald Tusk was likely to offer Britain a flexible extension of the date of the country’s exit from the bloc of up to one year.

The pound was up 0.2 percent at $1.3093.

The Australian dollar rose 0.2 percent to $0.71245.

The currency has risen this week, supported as signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute lifted risk assets and commodity prices