EUR/USD is advancing towards 1.1370 during the early European session on Thursday. The bearish outlook of the major pair remains intact below the key 100-day SMA, with oversold RSI momentum. The initial support level to monitor is 1.1350; the first upside barrier is identified at 1.1411. The EUR/USD pair is currently positioned in positive territory, hovering around 1.1370 during the early European session on Thursday. A surprisingly hawkish message from Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chair last week has traders anticipating a US hike as early as September. Markets may adopt a more cautious stance later in the day as they await the important US Personal Consumption Expenditures report.
The headline PCE is anticipated to demonstrate a year-over-year increase of 4.1% in May, up from 3.8% previously, while the core PCE is expected to reflect a rise of 3.4% year-over-year in May, compared to 3.3% in April. If the reports indicate stronger-than-anticipated results, this may strengthen the outlook for US interest rate increases later this year and support the US Dollar against the Euro. In the daily chart, EUR/USD continues its downward trajectory, falling beneath the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and staying significantly below the 100-day moving average, reinforcing a distinctly bearish outlook. Price is marginally above the lower Bollinger Band support at 1.1351, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 28.3 has entered oversold territory, indicating extended downside conditions but not yet suggesting a definitive rebound.
On the downside, immediate support is positioned at the lower Bollinger Band near 1.1350, where a sustained break could pave the way for additional losses toward the 1.1300 psychological level. On the topside, initial resistance appears at the March 13 low of 1.1411, as it approaches the 20-day Bollinger middle band around 1.1530 and the 100-day moving average at 1.1650. Only a recovery above this layered resistance zone would begin to alleviate the current bearish pressure.