The EUR/USD pair has strengthened, reaching approximately 1.1555 during the early hours of the Asian session on Thursday. US companies added 44,000 jobs in July, according to data. Iran and Oman have reached an agreement regarding the coordinates of maritime routes in the Strait of Hormuz. The EUR/USD pair advances to approximately 1.1555 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar has experienced a decline against the Euro, attributed to easing tensions in the Middle East and disappointing economic indicators from the United States. The US Initial Jobless Claims report is scheduled for release later on Thursday. Source reported that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated on Wednesday that Iran and Oman are nearing the completion of a proposed framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Nonetheless, Iranian officials warned that such an agreement would not necessarily lead to the automatic opening of the waterway. Expectations for a potential resolution between the US and Iran enhance risk appetite and lend some support to riskier assets, including the shared currency, in the short term.
Data released by Automatic Data Processing on Wednesday indicated that employment in the US private sector rose by 44,000 in July, a decrease from the 98,000 increase observed in June. This figure came in below the market consensus of 70K. Meanwhile, the Services Purchasing Managers Index improved to 54.1 in July from 54.0 in the previous month, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management. This reading fell short of expectations at 54.5. Traders are expected to derive additional insights from the US jobs data scheduled for release on Friday. If the reports indicate stronger-than-anticipated results, this would bolster expectations for prolonged elevated US interest rates and assist in curbing the Greenback’s declines. Strategists at Scotiabank note that the Euro is “steady, extending its latest consolidation in the mid/lower 1.15 area,” with price action broadly aligned to fair value estimates based on US–Germany spread dynamics. They point out that the latest data backdrop is mildly supportive rather than transformative, as “the final services and composite PMI’s offered a fractional improvement on the preliminary prints, indicating marginal levels of growth across the euro area, despite a slight contraction in France and Germany in July.” In their view, this combination of modestly better survey data and still-constructive sentiment continues to underpin the Euro’s recovery, even as growth signals remain uneven across key Eurozone economies.
Fed’s Cook delivers a speech that scores 7.2 out of 10 on the FXS Speechtracker, which is modestly above the historical average of 6.5 out of 10, indicating a slightly more assertive tone compared to the established baseline. The remarks balance the acknowledgement of negative consumer sentiment and a robust job market while emphasising that inflationary threats outweigh concerns regarding the job market. This underscores a strong commitment to restoring price stability and a preparedness to increase rates should the disinflation trend not materialise. This blend of economic resilience and conditional rate hike rhetoric maintains a cautiously hawkish overall tone, even as Cook concedes that additional tightening may ultimately be unwarranted. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index has decreased by 1.93 points to 140.92, suggesting a slight hawkish pullback while still firmly situated in hawkish territory above the neutral threshold of 100. Despite the decline, the elevated index level confirms that, in aggregate, recent Fed communication tracked by the FXS Speechtracker continues to lean toward inflation vigilance and a bias to tighten if necessary.
In the daily chart, EUR/USD remains positioned just below the 100-day simple moving average, which continues to limit the near-term outlook despite a rebound from recent lows. Price is currently positioned above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, with the Relative Strength Index at 64.34 approaching overbought levels. This indicates that bullish momentum is extending into a significant overhead supply zone characterised by the 100-day simple moving average and the upper Bollinger band. On the topside, immediate resistance is observed at the 100-day SMA at 1.1570, closely followed by the upper Bollinger band near 1.1575, creating a narrow barrier that bulls must overcome to extend their gains. On the downside, initial support is provided by the Bollinger midline at 1.1450, with a more substantial protective layer at the lower Bollinger band near 1.1320, where any corrective pullback would likely assess the resilience of the broader recovery phase.