The USD/CHF pair experiences an uptick as the US Dollar appreciates, following indications from the Federal Reserve of a possible additional rate hike before the end of the year. Switzerland’s Q2 2026 current account surplus experienced a notable increase, reaching CHF 23.7 billion. The Swiss National Bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark rate at 0%. USD/CHF gains ground after four days of losses, trading around 0.8220 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair appreciates as the US Dollar gains ground on the back of a hawkish policy outlook from the Federal Reserve.
Following a recent 25 basis point increase that brought the benchmark interest rate target to the 3.75%-4.00% range, Fed policymakers have indicated that an additional rate hike is still a possibility before the year’s conclusion. Financial markets are currently reflecting this trajectory, as evidenced by the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a probability of approximately 89.2% for a rate increase in December. Traders are now shifting their attention to the preliminary US PMI data set to be released later on Wednesday. In Switzerland, macroeconomic data revealed a notable expansion of the current account surplus, which increased to CHF 23.7 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up from a downwardly adjusted CHF 10.2 billion in Q2 2025.
This expansion marks the largest current account surplus for the country since the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, monetary policy expectations for Switzerland remain decidedly dovish in anticipation of the Swiss National Bank’s policy rate announcement on Thursday. Markets widely anticipate that the SNB will maintain its key interest rate at 0%, a consensus bolstered by a survey conducted by the Swiss Bankers Association, in which all respondents forecasted that the central bank will sustain rates at this level for the remainder of the year. Analysts at UOB Group note that their stance on the Dollar turned constructive only recently, commenting that “we turned positive on USD one week ago.”
They point out that the pair “soared to 0.8265,” and that as of last Thursday, with spot around 0.8250, they had cautioned that “while momentum remains strong, it is too early to tell whether it is sufficient for USD to break above 0.8300.” Since then, USD/CHF has eased back from the highs and, although their “strong support” at “0.8185 has not been breached yet,” UOB judges that “upward momentum has largely ended.” In their view, “USD has likely entered a range-trading phase,” with the pair “likely to trade between 0.8155 and 0.8255” over the coming one to three weeks.
