USD/JPY has declined to approximately 158.25 during the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday. The minutes from the BoJ meeting indicated that policymakers are ready to expedite monetary tightening. In October, the US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 165,000, while the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. The USD/JPY pair experiences a decline, approaching 158.25 in the early hours of the Asian session on Monday. The Japanese Yen edges higher against the US Dollar as Bank of Japan meeting minutes indicate policymakers are prepared to accelerate monetary tightening. The BoJ maintained its interest rates last month while emphasising its commitment to addressing inflationary risks, thereby strengthening market expectations for a potential rate increase in December. According to the minutes of the September meeting released on Thursday, a majority of BoJ policymakers concurred that additional interest rate hikes would be suitable as underlying inflation neared the central bank’s 2% target. On Friday, BoJ former top economist Seisaku Kameda said that the central bank is expected to raise interest rates in December and keep lifting borrowing costs next year until they reach 2% to combat mounting inflationary pressure.
US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, compared to 60,000 recorded in September, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This figure blew past expectations for a 65,000 gain. The Unemployment Rate in the US fell to 4.1% in October from 4.2% in September. Stronger-than-expected US jobs report keeps the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates in December. “The labor market is heating up across-the-board and supports our view that the Fed will raise the policy rate again in December,” said Kathy Bostjancic. Financial markets priced in a roughly 79.6% chance of a rate hike at the US central bank’s meeting next month, up from 72.8% before the US jobs report, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Strategists highlight that “haven demand favoured the JPY over the USD” during the latest bout of risk aversion. They note that the “DXY Index was unchanged at 101.6 despite the equity rout, as falling US yields eroded the greenback’s appeal.” In contrast, the Yen drew support both from safe-haven inflows and domestic policy signals, with ABN Amro pointing out that “the JPY appreciated by 0.5% to 157.70 per USD, underpinned by the Bank of Japan minutes, which reinforced expectations of further normalisation.”
Fed’s Daly delivers a notably more hawkish tone, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10 compared to the established baseline of 6.4/10, underscoring a stronger emphasis on tightening risks. The key remarks highlight that while the jobs report is “good news” and wage growth “isn’t booming,” real wages are falling and inflation has been “high for too long,” making inflation the number 1 priority and justifying further policy tightening despite a resilient labor market. Daly’s insistence that the strong labor market gives the Fed latitude to act, combined with readiness to raise rates if called for, supports a firmer DOLLAR bias and keeps risk assets on notice. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index increased by 0.95 points to 143.10, underscoring a decisively hawkish position significantly above the neutral 100 benchmark and consistent with the heightened FXS Speechtracker reading. This move signals that, despite acknowledgement of uncertainties around tariffs, war, and AI, the dominant market takeaway is that the Fed remains inclined toward additional tightening, a backdrop that should continue to underpin the dollar against the euro and yen.
In the daily chart, USD/JPY remains confined within a narrow range just below the 100-day Simple Moving Average, while it is positioned above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. This configuration indicates a generally range-bound bias, with price constrained by the upper Bollinger Band and the 100-day SMA above. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.93 suggests mildly constructive yet non-directional momentum. On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered near the Bollinger upper band at 158.95, followed by the 100-day SMA at 159.05, where a daily close above would be necessary to reopen a more decisive bullish leg. On the downside, initial support aligns with the Bollinger middle band at 157.95, with a deeper floor at the lower band around 156.95; a drop through this lower boundary would shift the focus toward a broader corrective phase in the pair.
